3rd Quarter 2022 Market Pulse Report

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Hello Folks,

Winter has arrived here in Park City and the Wasatch Back, with a recent series of robust winter storms blanketing our mountains with snow. A healthy 'atmospheric river' is forecast for mid-November, and the snow appears set to keep coming. Here's hoping that we are on track for an epic La Nina winter! 

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Much like the changing weather, a shift is underway in our real estate market. After two years of pandemic-induced hyperactivity, the market is returning to a more balanced state. Listing inventory  rose through the Summer from historic lows in January, and has now leveled off at numbers slightly below “normal”. Prices are also starting to level off in many sectors. Consequently, buyers are taking this opportunity to be more thoughtful in their purchase decisions, dramatically decreasing the instant offers that were prevalent during the past few years. Additionally, transaction numbers are now closer to those we saw in 2012 through 2019, another sign of a more stable market. Finally, sales-to-list price ratios are normalizing back to 95 - 96%, which is more typical of our pre-pandemic market. Sellers are re-evaluating the market, and, when necessary, price improvements are now occurring in a more timely manner.

During the third quarter, sale prices for single-family homes in Summit and Wasatch Counties showed moderate increases in both average and median prices, up 7% and 3% respectively. These numbers pale in comparison to the pandemic-fueled market increases of 40% and 50% that were commonplace during the past two years. However, they are in-line with the longer-term historic averages for our market. While prices were up, the number of transactions and the overall dollar volume dropped 30% for single-family homes and 27% for condominiums from the year prior.

There are a broad set of circumstances contributing to the moderating of sales activity, including fears that the market might be overheated, continued interest rate increases, and concerns about a potential recession in the near future. While these shifts can be cause for trepidation, market corrections are indeed an integral part of a balanced, healthy economy. From a real estate perspective, these inflection points can provide strong opportunities for judicious buyers and sellers.

We will, of course, be watching the numbers closely moving forward, making sure to keep you posted on the latest news. In the meantime, we look forward to hitting the slopes very soon and hope to see you out there!

Source: PCBOR Q3 2022 Quarterly Market Summary, 12 month rolling year over year for all property types across the PCMLS service areas in Summit and Wasatch Counties.

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12 Month Rolling: Oct 2021 - Sept 2022 | Oct 2020 - Sept 2021

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AVG SALE PRICE UP 36%
$4,606,930

SINGLE-FAMILY

MED SALE PRICE UP 33%
$3,900,000

AVG SALE PRICE UP 18%
$1,992,952

CONDOMINIUMS

MED SALE PRICE UP 20%
$1,500,000

AVG SALE PRICE UP 39%
$2,368,457

VACANT LAND

MED SALE PRICE UP 45%
$2,100,000

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AVG SALE PRICE UP 10%
$2,991,006

SINGLE-FAMILY

MED SALE PRICE UP 5%
$2,000,000

AVG SALE PRICE UP 53%
$1,235,921

CONDOMINIUMS

MED SALE PRICE UP 70%
$1,049,500

AVG SALE PRICE UP 9%
$1,344,621

VACANT LAND

MED SALE PRICE UP 25%
$930,500

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AVG SALE PRICE UP 19%
$1,436,855

SINGLE-FAMILY

MED SALE PRICE UP 25%
$1,042,500

AVG SALE PRICE UP 26%
$611,102

CONDOMINIUMS

MED SALE PRICE UP 30%
$496,000

AVG SALE PRICE UP 45%
$698,753

VACANT LAND

MED SALE PRICE UP 67%
$499,500

Not all sold data in the Heber Valley is included in the Park City Multiple Listing Service data; please call for more specific details. All data, information, and interpretation ©2022 Park City Multiple Listing Service, Inc

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Inventory has improved significantly, yet still remains 25% less than pre-pandemic levels. As listing inventory rises and mortgage interest rates climb, prices are starting to level off. Buyers are becoming more hesitant to make instant offers, and sellers are now responding by lowering those asking prices at a much higher velocity, helping to bring the market in balance.

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The Fed has delivered on its promise of six interest rate increases in 2022 with the aim of slowing inflation. "Mortgage rates continue to hover around seven percent, as the dynamics of a once-hot housing market have faded considerably. Unsure buyers navigating an unpredictable landscape keep demand declining, while other potential buyers remain sidelined from an affordability standpoint."

- FreddieMac.com  |  November 3, 2022

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The statistics below were drawn on a rolling year-over-year basis for the period ending September 30, 2022, unless otherwise noted.

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Despite fluctuations in the regional markets, single-family sales activity along the Wasatch Back was markedly down compared to the prior year, with sales volume off 25% and median prices up 3% year over year.

It’s important to not utilize the broader market trends to paint the picture for every local neighborhood. The market is highly segmented, and each neighborhood in Park City has unique values and pricing trends. See below for some noteworthy stats for single-family areas during the 3rd Quarter of 2022.

HIGHLIGHTS   |  Stats by Neighborhood

  • Within Park City Limits, total transactions were down 54% to 133 units, yet sales volume declined just 37% to $613 million year to date. The median price of a single-family home rose 33% to $3.9 million.
  • In the popular Old Town area, transaction numbers were down 71% (110 to 32), as the median price set a new record above $3.6 million (+63%).
  • The Prospector neighborhood led all others for the greatest increase in median price at 54% year-over-year to $2.6 million.
  • In the Snyderville Basin, sales volume is down 33%, yet there was a modest gain in the median price, up 5% to $2.0 million. All but two Snyderville neighborhoods (Kimball Junction and Silver Creek South) saw declines in the number of transactions, with Jeremy Ranch dropping the most, down 60% to 31 units. Silver Creek South had the biggest gain, with 22 homes sold, up 69%.
  • Jeremy Ranch and Old Ranch Road areas saw the biggest price increases with the median prices rising 53% and 44%, respectively. The median sale price in Old Ranch Road rose to $6.9 million, making it the second highest in the region behind Canyons Village, where the median price came in at $9.6 million.
  • The Heber and Kamas valleys showed substantial median price increases of 25% and 31%, respectively.

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Condominium sales prices were strong across the entire market area, while total sales volume declined due to a lack of inventory. Median price increases were greater than in the single-family market, with every major area across the region reporting increases of 20% or more.

HIGHLIGHTS  |  Stats by Neighborhood

  • The condominium market in Park City saw a 40% decrease in transactions while median sale prices increased by 20% to the current $1.5 million.
  • Price gains were nearly uniform across all neighborhoods, with only Upper Deer Valley declining (4%). Old Town and Prospector led the gainers, up 68% and 62% respectively.
  • In Wasatch County, Jordanelle Park doubled its sales volume over the prior year on a substantial gain in median price, up 48% to $976,000.

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After explosive growth in 2021, land sales declined across the region with every major area showing drops in units sold. Total sales volume dropped in all areas except Jordanelle, where sales volume was up 48%, and prices were up 61% from the year prior.

HIGHLIGHTS  |  Stats by Neighborhood

  • Jordanelle showed the most activity, selling 431 lots this past year with a median sale price of $726,000, up from $450,000 the prior year.
  • Overall, land sales in Summit and Wasatch counties were down 35%. However, price increases pushed the median sales price for lots region-wide up 42% to $695,000.
  • All the major areas of the market saw a drop in transaction volume. Snyderville, Heber Valley, and Wanship/Hoytsville saw the greatest drops, with volume dropping by half from the previous year’s total.
  • Only 35 lots sold within the Park City Limits, but the lack of available lots coupled with high demand pushed the median sale price for the few that did sell to $2.1 million, up 45% from the year before.

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Absorption Rate: the number of months it would take to sell the
currently listed properties on the market factoring in median list price. 
The stats below compare year over year averages for 


Oct 2020 - Sept 2021  VS.  Oct 2021 - Sept 2022

The current Absorption Rate for residences in greater Park City is currently 4.2 months. Six months ago, it was just 1.5 months. The average over the seven years from 2013 to 2019 was 7.2 months, so we are still selling homes much faster than in recent history. Still, the timeframe is more than twice what it was six months ago.

PARK CITY LIMITS                           
(Areas 1-9) Includes  Old Town, Thaynes Canyon, Lower Deer Valley Resort, Deer Crest, Upper Deer Valley Resort, Empire Pass, Aerie, Prospector, and Park Meadows.

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AS OF SEPTEMBER 2022

MEDIAN HOME PRICE
$3,900,000

ABSORPTION RATE
if home was listed at median price
6.4 months

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MEDIAN HOME PRICE
$1,500,000

ABSORPTION RATE
if home was listed at median price
2.9 months

SNYDERVILLE BASIN & JORDANELLE
(Areas 10-28) Includes The Canyons, Sun Peak/Bear Hollow, Silver Springs, Old Ranch Road, Kimball, Pinebrook, 
Summit Park, Jeremy Ranch, Glenwild/Silver Creek, Trailside Park, Promontory, Quinn's Junction, Deer Mountain, Tuhaye/Hideout,  Jordanelle, and South Jordanelle.

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AS OF SEPTEMBER 2022

MEDIAN HOME PRICE
$1,907,500

ABSORPTION RATE
if home was listed at median price
5.8 months

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MEDIAN HOME PRICE
$995,000

ABSORPTION RATE
if home was listed at median price
3.2 months

HEBER VALLEY

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AS OF SEPTEMBER 2022

MEDIAN HOME PRICE
$1,042,500

ABSORPTION RATE
if home was listed at median price
5.1 months

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Data for All States

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How much is the market changing?

We are witnessing some easing in prices as mortgage rates rise and competitive bidding becomes less frequent. Economic forecasts are predicting a continuing economic slowdown, but none has projected a real estate downturn such as we experienced in 2008. So, what are the key takeaways from this quarter’s numbers?

  • Inventory is finally improving. Since the end of 2021, inventory has increased from 287 to 836 properties for sale, about half of the pre-pandemic levels.
  • Demand is slowing. Q3-2022 sale transactions were down 30% from Q3-2021. Condominium sales are down 27%; single-family sales are down 30%; vacant land sales are down 35%.
  • Pending sales are back to about 2019's pace. Demand is waning in the face of 7% mortgage interest rates, which are likely to keep rising in 2023. Important to note is that roughly 50% of all transactions in the Wasatch Back are cash, so interest rates typically exert a little less influence on our market than in many other areas of the country. 

Keep in mind that despite the recent shifts in our market, there are always opportunities for both buyers and sellers who remain responsive to the latest conditions. It's certainly a very interesting time, and we look forward to keeping you posted on the latest market news.

Look forward to hearing from you soon, and let's hope Mother Nature keeps sending more snow our way!

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Coming Soon! Keep An Eye Out for our upcoming
Winter Events Newsletter!

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